Source: Zimbabwe Democracy Institute
Download full report (3.6MB PDF)
Introduction
This paper reflects on the political economy of the transition in Zimbabwe for the past years and most significantly in 2016. It discusses and interrogates the interaction between socioeconomic transformation and political change, that is, how the economy has and is affecting political stability and how the nature of political processes has contributed to shaping the current economic policy.
To clearly reflect on the transition and highlight the interaction between politics and the economy and the contradictions therein, the paper examines the roles of structures, institutions and agents that constitute the political economy with particular emphasis on how they have shaped the transition and its implications on governance and democratization trajectory.
The paper examines the state of the transition from a theoretical point of view, assesses the type of regime in Zimbabwe and its implications on the transition and deduces how this may shape the transition in 2016. It expounds the lessons learnt in the transition and proffers recommendations for stakeholders indissolubly linked to the transition in Zimbabwe.
The year 2016 can be marked as one tumultuous year in Zimbabwe’s political and economic transition owing to a number of reasons. Zimbabwe is witnessing an abstruse, capricious and very convoluted dual transition manifest in the coalescing of both the political and economic transition simultaneously. The economic regression characterised by successive quarters of negative economic growth; plummeting industrial capacity utilisation; increasing levels of poverty and deprivation exacerbated by the el-Niño induced drought leaving close to 4.1 million according to the World Food Programme (WFP) in need of food aid; the biting liquidity crisis and the impending introduction of bond notes; and the rising costs of food.
Politically, the main element on the menu of politics since 2014 has been the question of Zanu PF succession. The succession power struggles have permeated all levels and sectors of society both the private and public sectors and primarily all the organs and levels of Zanu PF. Contestation on who will succeed President Mugabe has allegedly pit two antagonistic factions namely Lacoste allegedly linked to Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Generation 4O allegedly linked to First lady Grace Mugabe.
The complication around the succession issue in Zanu PF has led to the emergence and deepening of conflicts involving critical groups such as the war veterans who for long have been a critical pillar for Zanu PF. Also and most importantly, the succession issue has seen the military covertly taking a preferred side as to who should assume the number one office in the land. As a result of these economic and political contestations, it appears that Zanu PF as both a party and government is at its weakest and this may result in authoritarian erosion and subsequently breakdown.
Download full report (3.6MB PDF)
Source: Zimbabwe Democracy Institute